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Governing Framework

Flawed assumptions about human psychology are a central weakness of credibility assessment in refugee status decision-making.1 Psychology evidence – the scientific community’s best available information about how people in studied populations think and act – can improve these kinds of judgments. This evidence can help decision-makers to avoid a potentially fatal mistake: rejecting truthful testimony.2

The Baseline Paper Series addresses psychological responses that refugee status decision-makers commonly assume are too unusual to be believed. These papers make clear when the relevant body of empirical studies has established that these responses are, on the contrary, entirely unremarkable: ‘well within the range of normal human experience.’

If a certain way of thinking or acting is common enough among the people who have been studied, why should a claimant be disbelieved because they thought or acted this way? This evidence should push decision-makers to rethink or better support their reasons for concluding that a claimant is lying.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

References

1 Researchers have for decades observed that decision-makers often rely on flawed psychological assumptions when they conclude that claimants are lying. For a recent review, see ASS Jarlner, ME Hertz, MA Heyl, T Gammeltoft-Hansen & WH Byrne, “Credibility as a fuzzy concept in refugee law: a systematic literature review” (2026) Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1–31 .  See e.g. L Affolter, “Regular matters: credibility determination and the institutional habitus in a Swiss asylum office” (2021) 9:1 Comparative Migration Studies 1 ; E Bailey, Z Given-Wilson & A Memon, “Perceived Credibility of Asylum Claimants: The Role of Decision-Maker Affect and Asylum Seeker’s Emotions” (2025) Psychology, Crime & Law 1–19 ; H Baillot, S Cowan & VE Munro, “Seen but Not Heard? Parallels and Dissonances in the Treatment of Rape Narratives across the Asylum and Criminal Justice Contexts” (2009) 36:2 Journal of Law and Society 195 ; H Baillot, S Cowan & VE Munro, “Reason to Disbelieve: Evaluating the Rape Claims of Women Seeking Asylum in the UK” (2014) 10:1 International Journal of Law in Context 105–139 ; D Ballucci & S Ghebrai, “(De)Constructing Credibility: Examining the Power of Childhood in Unaccompanied Refugee Decision-Making” (2023) 21:3 Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies 291–304 ; SC Bishop, “‘What does a torture survivor look like?’ Nonverbal communication in US asylum interviews and hearings” (2021) 15:1 Journal of International and Intercultural Communication 1 ; E Bodström, “Asylum Decisions as Performances: Intertextuality in Internal Credibility Assessment” (2020) 32:4 International Journal of Refugee Law 623 ; E Bodström, “‘Because Migri Says So’: Legitimation in Negative Asylum Decisions in Finland” (2020) 10:2 Nordic Journal of Migration Research 5 ; L Bradley & H Farber, “Virtually Incredible: Rethinking Deference to Demeanor When Assessing Credibility in Asylum Cases Conducted by Video Teleconference” (2022) 36 Georgetown Immigration Law Journal 515; C Bohmer & A Shuman, “Producing Epistemologies of Ignorance in the Political Asylum Application Process” (2007) 14:5 Identities 603–629 ; JR Campbell, “Examining Procedural Unfairness and Credibility Findings in the UK Asylum System” (March 2020) 39 Refugee Survey Quarterly 56–75 ; A Chan, “Establishing (Un)certainty: Language and Reproducing Suspicion in Forensic Medical Evaluations” (2026) 41:2 Refuge 1 ; J Cohen, “Questions of Credibility: Omissions, Discrepancies and Errors of Recall in the Testimony of Asylum Seekers” (2001) 13:3 International Journal of Refugee Law 293 ; R Dowd, J Hunter, B Liddell, J McAdam, A Nickerson & R Bryant, “Filling Gaps and Verifying Facts: Assumptions and Credibility Assessment in the Australian Refugee Review Tribunal” (2018) 30:1 International Journal of Refugee Law 71–103 ; H Evans Cameron, “Refugee Status Determinations and the Limits of Memory” (2010) 22:4 International Journal of Refugee Law 469–511 ; H Evans Cameron, “Risk and the Reasonable Refugee: Exploring a Key Credibility Inference in Canadian Refugee Status Rejections” (2023) 35:1 International Journal of Refugee Law 10–36 ; H Evans Cameron, “Risk Theory and ‘Subjective Fear’: The Role of Risk Perception, Assessment, and Management in Refugee Status Determinations” (2008) 20:4 International Journal of Refugee Law 567 ; H Evans Cameron, “Sin of Omission: Exploring a Key Credibility Inference in Canadian Refugee Status Rejections” (2023) 60:1 Osgoode Hall Law Journal 127–174 ; H Evans Cameron, J Herlihy & M Hynie, “Investigating deception findings in Canadian refugee status rejections: legal inferences and psychological assumptions” (2025) 32 Psychiatry, Psychology and Law 949–975 ; H Evans Cameron, S Rehaag & K Friesen, “The Effect of an ‘Appearance, Presentation and Demeanour’ Instruction on Credibility and Deception Judgements in a Mock Refugee Hearing” (2025) 37:1 Journal of Law and Social Policy 1 ; C Gerken, “Credibility, Trauma, and the Law: Domestic Violence-Based Asylum Claims in the United States” (2022) 30:3 Feminist Legal Studies 255–280 ; Z Given-Wilson, J Herlihy & M Hodes, “Telling the story: A psychological review on assessing adolescents’ asylum claims” (2016) 57:1 Canadian Psychology 16 ; Z Given-Wilson, J Herlihy & M Hodes, “A review of adolescent autobiographical memory and the implications for unaccompanied asylum-seeking minors’ refugee determinations” (2018) 23:4 Clinical Child Psychology and Psychiatry 635 ; PA Granhag, LA Stromwall & M Hartwig, “Granting asylum or not? Migration Board personnel’s beliefs about deception” (2005) 31:1 Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 29 ; J Herlihy, P Scragg & S Turner, “Discrepancies in autobiographical memories—implications for the assessment of asylum seekers: repeated interviews study” (2002) 324 British Medical Journal 324 ; J Herlihy, K Gleeson & S Turner, “What Assumptions about Human Behaviour Underlie Asylum Judgments?” (2010) 22:3 International Journal of Refugee Law 351–366 ; J Herlihy & S Turner, “Untested Assumptions: Psychological Research and Credibility Assessment in Legal Decision-Making” (2015) 6 European Journal of Psychotraumatology 27380 ; M Hertz & AS Stage Jarlner, “Trans ‘Enough’ for Protection? Experimenting with Credibility in Refugee Status Determination” (2025) 7 Frontiers in Human Dynamics ; M Holland, “Stories for Asylum: Narrative and Credibility in the United States’ Political Asylum Application” (2018) 34:2 Refuge 28; J Hunter, L Pearson, M San Roque & Z Steel, “Asylum Adjudication, Mental Health and Credibility Evaluation” (2013) 41:3 Federal Law Review 471–495 ; M Jacquemet, “Asylum and Superdiversity: The Search for Denotational Accuracy during Asylum Hearings” (2015) 44 Language & Communication 72–81 ; L Johannesson, “The Symbolic Life of Courts: How Judicial Language, Actions, and Objects Legitimize Credibility Assessments of Asylum Appeals” (2023) 24 Journal of International Migration and Integration 791–809 ; O Jubany, “Constructing Truths in a Culture of Disbelief: Understanding Asylum Screening from Within” (2011) 26:1 International Sociology 74–94 ; M Kagan, “Believable Victims: Asylum Credibility and the Struggle for Objectivity” (2015) Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 904; M Kagan, “Is Truth in the Eye of the Beholder? Objective Credibility Assessment in Refugee Status Determination” (2003) 17:3 Georgetown Immigration Law Journal 367–415 ; M Kagan, “Refugee Credibility Assessment and the 'Religious Imposter' Problem: A Case Study of Eritrean Pentecostal Claims in Egypt” (2010) 43:5 Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law 1179; F Kendall, “‘Catch-22’? : The Assessment of Credibility in UK Asylum Applications" (2022) 2:1 New Sociological Perspectives 75 ; C Ludt, M BjĂžrnholt & B Niklasson, “Speaking the Unspeakable: Disclosures of Sexual and Gender-based Violence in Asylum Credibility Assessments” (2022) 40:3 Nordic Journal of Human Rights 441 ; T Luker, “Decision Making Conditioned by Radical Uncertainty: Credibility Assessment at the Australian Refugee Review Tribunal” (2013) 25:3 International Journal of Refugee Law 502–534 ; D McDonald, “Credibility Assessment in Refugee Status Determination" (2014) 26:2 National Law School of India Review 115 ; D McDonald-Norman, “No One to Bear Witness: Country Information and LGBTQ Asylum Seekers” (2017) 33:2 Refuge 88–100 ; J Millbank, “‘The Ring of Truth’: A Case Study of Credibility Assessment in Particular Social Group Refugee Determinations" (2009) 21:1 International Journal of Refugee Law 1 ; A Mosley, “Re-Victimization and the Asylum Process: Jimenez Ferreira v Lynch: Re-Assessing the Weight Placed on Credible Fear Interviews in Determining Credibility” (2018) 36 Law & Inequality 315–344 ; S Rehaag, “‘I Simply do not Believe...’: A Case Study of Credibility Determinations in Canadian Refugee Adjudication" (2017) 38 Windsor Review of Legal and Social Issues 38 ; S Rehaag & H Evans Cameron, “Experimenting with Credibility in Refugee Adjudication: Gaydar” (2020) 9 Canadian Journal of Human Rights 1-34 ; J Rinaldi & S Fernando, "Queer Credibility in the Homonation-State: Interrogating the Affective Impacts of Credibility Assessments on Racialized Sexual Minority Refugee Claimants" (2019) 35:1 Refuge 24 ; L Rose & Z Given-Wilson, “‘What Is Truth?’ Negotiating Christian Convert Asylum Seekers’ Credibility” (2021) 697:1 The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 221–235 ; H Rogers, S Fox & J Herlihy, “The Importance of Looking Credible: The Impact of the Behavioural Sequelae of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder on the Credibility of Asylum Seekers” (2015) 21:2 Psychology, Crime & Law 139–155 ; H Selim, J Korkman, E Pirjatanniemi & J Antfolk, “Asylum claims based on sexual orientation: a review of psycho-legal issues in credibility assessments” (2023) 29:10 Psychology, Crime & Law 1001 ; H Selim, J Korkman, P NynĂ€s, E Pirjatanniemi & J Antfolk, "A review of psycho-legal issues in credibility assessments of asylum claims based on religion" (2023) 30:6 Psychiatry Psychology & Law 760 ; H Selim, P Lindblad, J Vanto, J Skrifvars, A Alvesalo-Kuusi, J Korkman, E Pirjatanniemi & J Antfolk,  "(In)credibly queer? Assessments of asylum claims based on sexual orientation" (2025) 30 Legal & Criminological Psychology 159 ; J Skrifvars, V Sui, J Antfolk, T van Veldhuizen, & J Korkman, “Psychological assumptions underlying credibility assessments in Finnish asylum determinations” (2024) 76:1 Nordic Psychology 55 ; KE Smeda, "Truth or Dare: A Framework for Analyzing Credibility in Children Seeking Asylum" (2017) 50:2 Cornell International Law Journal 307 ; L Smith-Khan, “Incorporating Sociolinguistic Perspectives in Australian Refugee Credibility Assessments: The Case of CRL18” (2023) 24 Journal of International Migration and Integration 727–743 ; P Spinhoven, T Bean, L Eurelings-Bontekoe, "Inconsistencies in the self-report of traumatic experiences by unaccompanied refugee minors" (2006) 19:5 Journal of Traumatic Stress 663-73 ; K Tay, N Frommer, J Hunter, D Silove, L Pearson, MS Roque, R Redman, RA Bryant, V Manicavasagar & Z Steel, “A Mixed-Method Study of Expert Psychological Evidence Submitted for a Cohort of Asylum Seekers Undergoing Refugee Status Determination in Australia” (2013) 98 Social Science & Medicine 106–115 ; R Thomas, “Assessing the Credibility of Asylum Claims: EU and UK Approaches Examined” (2006) 8:1 European Journal of Migration & Law 79 ; H TuĆŸinskĂĄ, “The Communicative Space: Painting the Evidence and Plausibility in Asylum Court Hearings” (2025) 34:6 Social & Legal Studies 832 ; H Wikström & T Johansson, "Credibility Assessments as 'Normative Leakage': Asylum Applications, Gender and Class" (2013) 1:2 Social Inclusion 92-101 ; A Vogl, Judging Refugees: Narrative and Oral Testimony in Refugee Status Determination (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024); A Vogl, “Telling Stories from Start to Finish: Exploring the Demand for Narrative in Refugee Testimony” (2013) 22:1 Griffith Law Review 63–86&ČÔČúČő±è;; S Zisakou, “Credibility Assessment in Asylum Claims Based on Sexual Orientation by the Greek Asylum Service: A Deep-Rooted Culture of Disbelief” (2021) 3 Frontiers in Human Dynamics 693308 .

2 See H Evans Cameron, Refugee Law’s Fact-Finding Crisis: Truth, Risk, and the Wrong Mistake (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018)